Through the comprehensive rejection of the voice vote, did Australians reject constitutional recognition? It is true that the vote was a clear rejection of the form of constitutional recognition that was preferred by the majority of signatories to the Uluru Statement from the Heart (i.e., ‘constitutional reforms to empower our people and take a rightful place in our own country’). However, it does not follow that the Australian population voted against constitutional recognition per se. Rather, the survey data suggests that there is still widespread support for a broad definition of constitutional recognition, including amongst no voters.
56% of people who felt able to give a yes or no response would definitely have voted yes (41.5%) or would probably have voted yes (14.7%).
29% of Australians who were eligible to vote in the actual referendum were unsure and would have needed more details.
86% of those that voted yes in the Voice referendum, would have voted yes if the question was on constitutional recognition only.
Even amongst no voters, there was quite substantial levels of support for constitutional recognition with 40.8% saying they probably or definitely would vote yes.
Through the comprehensive rejection of the voice vote, did Australians reject constitutional recognition? It is true that the vote was a clear rejection of the form of constitutional recognition that was preferred by the majority of signatories to the Uluru Statement from the Heart (i.e., ‘constitutional reforms to empower our people and take a rightful place in our own country’). However, it does not follow that the Australian population voted against constitutional recognition per se. Rather, the survey data suggests that there is still widespread support for a broad definition of constitutional recognition, including amongst no voters.
Respondents were asked ‘If the Referendum question was not to establish the Voice to Parliament but instead to recognise Indigenous people in the Constitution only, would you have voted YES or NO?’ Around three-in-ten Australians who were eligible to vote in the actual referendum (29.3%) responded that they were unsure and would have needed more details. However, of those who felt able to give a yes or no response, about five times as many people who said that they would definitely have voted yes (41.5%) or would probably have voted yes (14.7%) than those who said that they would probably have voted no (5.4%) or would definitely have voted no (9.2%).
Not surprisingly, there was a strong correlation between someone’s actual vote in the referendum and how they say they would have voted if it was on recognition only. Using a very conservative measure of support (that is, treating all those who were undecided as no voters), amongst those that voted yes in the Voice referendum, 86.0% said that they would have voted yes if the question was on constitutional recognition only. Of those yes voters that didn’t say yes on constitutional recognition, the vast majority (12.8%) were undecided.
Even amongst no voters, however, there was quite substantial levels of support for constitutional recognition with 40.8% saying they probably or definitely would vote yes. Many no voters were undecided about constitutional recognition (35.8%), but there was also a sizable minority (23.4%) that said they would vote no.
The lowest level of yes support is amongst those that voted informal or did not vote (30.3%). However, more than half of this group were undecided (54.7%) with only 15.0% saying they probably or definitely would vote no.