Morrison’s winning when it comes to popularity

While not many voters cast their ballot on the basis of party leadership in 2019 (only 7%), those who did so were more likely to be swing voters. It was a more important factor for Coalition voters 13% of whom said they cast their ballots on leadership while only 4% of Labor voters did so.

When scored out of ten, Scott Morrison was the most popular leader in 2019. With a rating of 5.14, he was ahead of his predecessor Malcolm Turnbull, Nationals leader Michael McCormack, Greens leader Richard Di Natale and Labor leader Bill Shorten.

Mr Morrison was also much more popular with his voters, Liberal voters, than Bill Shorten was with Labor voters. Liberal voters ranked Mr Morrison 7.5 out of ten, while Labor voters scored Mr Shorten 5.7 out of ten. Other voters ranked the two men relatively equally.

The question on leader popularity has been asked consistently since 1987, which means long term comparisons can be made on the main party leaders. Scott Morrison’s popularity rating places him as the most popular leader to win an election since Kevin Rudd’s 2007 win. It is the first occasion since 2007 where a party leader’s average rating has exceeded 5 which is the midpoint of the ratings scale. Each of the elections between 2010 to 2016 were won by unpopular leaders, competing against even more unpopular opponents. The 2019 election breaks this trend. Mr Morrison ranks in the middle of the 24 leaders who have contested elections from 1987 onwards (some leaders have contested multiple elections).