BACKGROUND COLOUR

Morrison’s winning when it comes to popularity

Analysis
.
Australian Election Study
.
21 Jul 2021
Politics + Leadership + Politics & Parties
Based on the work of
Ian McAllisterClive BeanRachel GibsonToni MakkaiJill SheppardSarah Cameron

Scott Morrison was clearly the most popular leader in 2019, and was more popular with Liberal voters than Bill Shorten was with Labor voters. He was ranked higher in 2019 than his predecessor, while Mr Shorten was ranked the lowest.

5.1

When rated out of 10, Scott Morrison was the most popular leader in 2019 with a 5.1 rating.

2007

Mr Morrison is most popular leader to win an election since Kevin Rudd in 2007

11

Of 24 leaders contested fed elections since 1987 ..scott morrison ranked 11th

7.5

Mr Morrison was extremely popular among Liberal voters rating 7.5 out of 10, while Labor voters rated him 3.4

Voting Based on the Party Leaders
In deciding how you would vote in the election, which was most important to you? 1. The party leaders 2. The policy issues 3. The candidates in your electorate 4. The parties taken as a whole
Sources & Methodology
Variable description Grouped by voters
Variable time span 1996 to 2019
Published by Australian Election Study
Publisher Link https://australianelectionstudy.org
Data Source doi:10.26193/KMAMMW
© Copyright 2021, Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University.
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While not many voters cast their ballot on the basis of party leadership, those who did so were more likely to be swing voters.

While not many voters cast their ballot on the basis of party leadership in 2019 (only 7%), those who did so were more likely to be swing voters. It was a more important factor for Coalition voters 13% of whom said they cast their ballots on leadership while only 4% of Labor voters did so.

Leader Popularity
Using a scale from 0 to 10, please show how much you like or dislike the party leaders
Sources & Methodology
Variable description Grouped by party leader
Variable time span 2019
Published by Australian Election Study
Publisher Link https://australianelectionstudy.org
Data Source doi:10.26193/KMAMMW
© Copyright 2021, Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University.
CSV Data
PNG Image
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When scored out of ten, Scott Morrison was the most popular leader in 2019.

When scored out of ten, Scott Morrison was the most popular leader in 2019. With a rating of 5.14, he was ahead of his predecessor Malcolm Turnbull, Nationals leader Michael McCormack, Greens leader Richard Di Natale and Labor leader Bill Shorten.

Vote Choice and Leader Popularity
Using a scale from 0 to 10, please show how much you like or dislike the party leaders
Sources & Methodology
Variable description Grouped by party leader
Variable time span 2019
Published by Australian Election Study
Publisher Link https://australianelectionstudy.org
Data Source doi:10.26193/KMAMMW
© Copyright 2021, Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University.
CSV Data
PNG Image
CHART
SOURCES
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Mr Morrison was also much more popular with his voters, Liberal voters, than Bill Shorten was with Labor voters.

Mr Morrison was also much more popular with his voters, Liberal voters, than Bill Shorten was with Labor voters. Liberal voters ranked Mr Morrison 7.5 out of ten, while Labor voters scored Mr Shorten 5.7 out of ten. Other voters ranked the two men relatively equally.

Leader Popularity and Election Outcome, 1987 - 2019
Using a scale from 0 to 10, with 0 meaning 'strongly dislike' and 10 meaning 'strongly like', please show how much you like or dislike the party leaders.
Sources & Methodology
Variable description By mean popularity score
Variable time span 2019
Published by Australian Election Study
Publisher Link https://australianelectionstudy.org
Data Source doi:10.26193/KMAMMW
© Copyright 2021, Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University.
CSV Data
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Scott Morrison’s popularity rating places him as the most popular leader to win an election since Kevin Rudd’s 2007 win.

The question on leader popularity has been asked consistently since 1987, which means long term comparisons can be made on the main party leaders. Scott Morrison’s popularity rating places him as the most popular leader to win an election since Kevin Rudd’s 2007 win. It is the first occasion since 2007 where a party leader’s average rating has exceeded 5 which is the midpoint of the ratings scale. Each of the elections between 2010 to 2016 were won by unpopular leaders, competing against even more unpopular opponents. The 2019 election breaks this trend. Mr Morrison ranks in the middle of the 24 leaders who have contested elections from 1987 onwards (some leaders have contested multiple elections).

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Background

The Australian Election Study (AES) is the leading study of political attitudes and behaviour in Australia. The study has surveyed voters for over thirty years, since 1987, providing an unparalleled source of evidence on voter attitudes towards politics in Australia. The AES provides insights into what explains voters’ choices in elections as well as public opinion on a range of policy issues.

In addition to providing a long-term perspective on stability and change in the Australian electorate, the AES examines the issues and personalities in each election and evaluates their importance in shaping election results. Data and reports are currently available for Australian federal elections from 1987 to 2019. The Social Research Centre has collected data for the Australian Election Study.

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Researchers

Ian McAllister is Distinguished Professor of Political Science at The Australian National University. He has previously held positions at the universities of Strathclyde, Manchester, and New South Wales. He is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia and a corresponding Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. His scholarly research covers comparative political behaviour, postcommunist politics and Northern Ireland and Australian politics. He was Chair of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems project from 2004 to 2009 and is currently editor of the Oxford University Press series on the project. He was editor of the Australian Journal of Political Science from 2004 to 2010. He has directed the Australian Election Study since 1987.

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Clive Bean is Professor of Political Science and Director of Undergraduate Studies in the Creative Industries Faculty at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). Between 2000 and 2009 he was Head of the School of Humanities and Human Services/Humanities Program at QUT and prior to joining QUT, he was a research fellow in the Research School of Social Sciences at the Australian National University. His research interests are in the field of political and social attitudes and behaviour, voting and elections. His work focuses principally on Australia, but also has a strong comparative dimension. He has published numerous articles in major international refereed journals and his research has been widely cited both nationally and internationally. Professor Bean and his colleagues have been awarded a number of Australian Research Council Discovery grants to conduct the Australian Election Study, the most recent being for the 2016 and 2019 federal elections.

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Rachel Gibson is Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester. She completed her PhD at Texas A&M University. She is responsible for leading the social media aspect of the British election Study, iBES. She has held positions as Professor of New Media Studies at the University of Leicester, Senior Research Fellow in the ACSPRI Centre for Social Research at ANU, and Lecturer in politics at the University of Salford. Rachel has previously been the Principal Investigator of and the Australian Survey of Social Attitudes as well as projects dealing with the impact of new media on politics. She is the co-editor of the Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties.

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Toni Makkai has had a varied career with twists and turns and ups and downs including holding tenure twice giving it up to take interesting contract positions paying less. She was a PDF in the inaugural ARC scheme working on the largest study on aged care regulation to date. She was the first woman appointed as CEO of the Australian Institute of Criminology establishing the DUMA project incorporating survey and forensic data. As first female Dean in the new ANU college structure she established CSRM and was instrumental in ANU purchasing the SRC (and is a board director). Active in the NGO sector she assisted the first government sanctioned ACT Pill Testing Trial, sits on governance boards of the Ted Noffs Foundation, The Farm at Galong and the IIAB of Griffith Institute of Criminology.

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Dr Jill Sheppard is a lecturer in politics at the Australian National University, and an investigator on the Australian Election Study. Her research focuses on why people participate in politics, what opinions they hold and why, and how both are shaped by political institutions and systems. Jill is also an investigator the World Values Survey and Asian Barometer Survey, and a member of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems planning committee.

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Dr Sarah Cameron is a political scientist in the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Sydney. Her research focuses on comparative political behaviour and public opinion, elections, and Australian politics. She contributes to several leading studies on elections and democracy. She has contributed to the Australian Election Study since 2013, and managed the Electoral Integrity Project from 2017 to 2018.

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Citation

McAllister, Ian; Bean, Clive; Gibson, Rachel; Makkai, Toni; Sheppard, Jill; Cameron, Sarah, 2019, “Australian Election Study, 2019”, doi:10.26193/KMAMMW, ADA Dataverse, V2

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