While only a small number of voters make their decision at the ballot box based on party leadership, they are more likely to be swinging voters and potentially crucial to the final result. Scott Morrison was much more popular than his opponent, Bill Shorten.
While only 7% of those who took part in the Australian Election Study say they voted based on party leaders, those who do are more likely to be swing voters.
Fewer Labor voters (4%) cast their vote on the basis of leadership than in 2007 (20%) while 13% of Coalition voters did so.
Scott Morrison was the most popular leader in the 2019 election with an average evaluation of 5.1/10.
Almost three quarters of respondents disapproved of the way the Liberal Party handled the leadership change from Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison.
Scott Morrison was the most popular leader in the 2019 election, with respondents rating him 5.14 out of 10. That was higher than his predecessor Malcolm Turnbull, his Coalition partner, Michael McCormack and his opposition - Greens leader Richard Di Natale and Bill Shorten who rated last at 3.97.
Richard Di Natale, who had a rating of 4.02, was the first Greens leader to have a rating above one of the major party leaders.
The percentage of voters who cast their ballot on leadership has fluctuated depending on how popular the leader was. In 2007, 20% of Labor voters cast their vote based on party leadership. By contrast in 2019 only 4 percent of Labor voters said leadership was their main consideration. 13 percent of Coalition voters voted based on leadership.
Among those who voted based on party leaders in 2019, 76 percent voted for the Coalition while just 21 percent voted for Labor. Based on these responses, it’s estimated that the net effect of leadership on the vote was 4 percent against Labor.
The 2019 election followed the latest in a decade-long series of leadership changes. Voters have disapproved of these leadership changes whether Labor or the Coalition was in government
Respondents to the AES continue to disapprove of the changes. In the 2019 study, three in four voters (74 percent) disapproved of the way the Liberal Party handled the change in the previous year from Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison. It is comparable to 2010 when Julia Gillard replaced Kevin Rudd, and higher than the two intervening changes (from Gillard to Rudd and from Tony Abbott to Turnbull).