BACKGROUND COLOUR

Putting our faith in America

Analysis
.
Australian Election Study
.
10 Aug 2021
Politics + Foreign Affairs + Defence & Security
Based on the work of
Ian McAllisterClive BeanRachel GibsonToni MakkaiJill SheppardSarah Cameron

A minority of the population believe that Australia is able to defend itself from attack. Owing to this insecurity, the Unites States is overwhelmingly viewed as an important military ally despite a recent decline amongst those trusting it to come to Australia’s aid.

85 %

A strong majority of Australians view the alliance with the United States under ANZUS as important.

69 %

A reasonable majority trust the United States to come to Australia’s defence.

30 %

A minority believe that Australia is able to defend itself if attacked.

41 %

41% agree that Australia’s defence is stronger than 10 years ago.

Attitudes towards Australia's Defence Capability
Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with the statement: "Australia would be able to defend itself successfully if it were ever attacked."
Sources & Methodology
Variable description Combined % who responded 'Strongly agree' or 'Agree'
Variable time span 1996 to 2019
Published by Australian Election Study
Publisher Link https://australianelectionstudy.org
Data Source doi:10.26193/KMAMMW
© Copyright 2021, Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University.
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In an increasingly polarised world, only 30% of Australians believe that Australia is able to defend itself in the event of an attack.

In an increasingly polarised world, only 30% of Australians believe that Australia is able to defend itself in the event of an attack. This figure has been relatively stable since 2010, although it has risen from an even smaller 16% in 2001. While there has been a moderate increase in those who believe Australia can defend itself, the majority of Australians disagree with this sentiment.

A slightly higher number – 41% - agree that Australia’s defence is stronger than 10 years ago. However, since 2004, this belief has declined by 14%.

Attitudes towards Australia's Defence Links with the United States
How important do you think the Australian alliance with the United States under the ANZUS treaty is for protecting Australia’s security? Very important, Fairly important, Not very important, Not at all important.
If Australia’s security were threatened by some other country, how much trust do you feel Australia can have in the United States to come to Australia’s defence? A great deal, A fair amount, Not very much, None at all
Sources & Methodology
Variable description Combined % who responded 'A great deal' or 'A fair amount'
Variable time span 1993 to 2019
Published by Australian Election Study
Publisher Link https://australianelectionstudy.org
Data Source doi:10.26193/KMAMMW
© Copyright 2021, Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University.
CSV Data
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CHART
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Trust in the United States to come to Australia’s defence has fallen to a historical low.

Trust in the United States to come to Australia’s defence has fallen to a historical low. In 2019, only 69% of Australians trusted the United States to come to their aid – a fall of 11% from the 80% who trusted the United States in 2016. This three-year decline may be the result of President Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy that cast doubt upon the strength of its alliances. It is important to note that this decline in trust in not unprecedented, as trust levels have fluctuated between a low of 69% and a high of 83% since 1993.

Despite this recent decline in trust, the vast majority of Australians - at 85% - agree that the alliance with the United States under ANZUS is important. Throughout the 2000s, the proportion of Australians who agreed remained relatively constant – from 90% in 2001 down to the most recent figure of 85% in 2019. This indicates that Australians still view the United States as an indispensable ally, albeit one that 31% of Australian’s do not trust to come to their defence.

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Background

The Australian Election Study (AES) is the leading study of political attitudes and behaviour in Australia. The study has surveyed voters for over thirty years, since 1987, providing an unparalleled source of evidence on voter attitudes towards politics in Australia. The AES provides insights into what explains voters’ choices in elections as well as public opinion on a range of policy issues.

In addition to providing a long-term perspective on stability and change in the Australian electorate, the AES examines the issues and personalities in each election and evaluates their importance in shaping election results. Data and reports are currently available for Australian federal elections from 1987 to 2019. The Social Research Centre has collected data for the Australian Election Study.

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Researchers

Ian McAllister is Distinguished Professor of Political Science at The Australian National University. He has previously held positions at the universities of Strathclyde, Manchester, and New South Wales. He is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia and a corresponding Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. His scholarly research covers comparative political behaviour, postcommunist politics and Northern Ireland and Australian politics. He was Chair of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems project from 2004 to 2009 and is currently editor of the Oxford University Press series on the project. He was editor of the Australian Journal of Political Science from 2004 to 2010. He has directed the Australian Election Study since 1987.

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Clive Bean is Professor of Political Science and Director of Undergraduate Studies in the Creative Industries Faculty at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). Between 2000 and 2009 he was Head of the School of Humanities and Human Services/Humanities Program at QUT and prior to joining QUT, he was a research fellow in the Research School of Social Sciences at the Australian National University. His research interests are in the field of political and social attitudes and behaviour, voting and elections. His work focuses principally on Australia, but also has a strong comparative dimension. He has published numerous articles in major international refereed journals and his research has been widely cited both nationally and internationally. Professor Bean and his colleagues have been awarded a number of Australian Research Council Discovery grants to conduct the Australian Election Study, the most recent being for the 2016 and 2019 federal elections.

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Rachel Gibson is Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester. She completed her PhD at Texas A&M University. She is responsible for leading the social media aspect of the British election Study, iBES. She has held positions as Professor of New Media Studies at the University of Leicester, Senior Research Fellow in the ACSPRI Centre for Social Research at ANU, and Lecturer in politics at the University of Salford. Rachel has previously been the Principal Investigator of and the Australian Survey of Social Attitudes as well as projects dealing with the impact of new media on politics. She is the co-editor of the Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties.

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Toni Makkai has had a varied career with twists and turns and ups and downs including holding tenure twice giving it up to take interesting contract positions paying less. She was a PDF in the inaugural ARC scheme working on the largest study on aged care regulation to date. She was the first woman appointed as CEO of the Australian Institute of Criminology establishing the DUMA project incorporating survey and forensic data. As first female Dean in the new ANU college structure she established CSRM and was instrumental in ANU purchasing the SRC (and is a board director). Active in the NGO sector she assisted the first government sanctioned ACT Pill Testing Trial, sits on governance boards of the Ted Noffs Foundation, The Farm at Galong and the IIAB of Griffith Institute of Criminology.

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Dr Jill Sheppard is a lecturer in politics at the Australian National University, and an investigator on the Australian Election Study. Her research focuses on why people participate in politics, what opinions they hold and why, and how both are shaped by political institutions and systems. Jill is also an investigator the World Values Survey and Asian Barometer Survey, and a member of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems planning committee.

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Dr Sarah Cameron is a political scientist in the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Sydney. Her research focuses on comparative political behaviour and public opinion, elections, and Australian politics. She contributes to several leading studies on elections and democracy. She has contributed to the Australian Election Study since 2013, and managed the Electoral Integrity Project from 2017 to 2018.

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Citation

McAllister, Ian; Bean, Clive; Gibson, Rachel; Makkai, Toni; Sheppard, Jill; Cameron, Sarah, 2019, “Australian Election Study, 2019”, doi:10.26193/KMAMMW, ADA Dataverse, V2

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